The presidential race stays too near name, seemingly coming down as soon as once more to the Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
However the outcomes up to now counsel former President Donald Trump improved his efficiency in a lot of the nation relative to 2020, and that if Vice President Kamala Harris nonetheless manages to win, it could be by a particularly slim margin.
The only swing state referred to as by a serious information outlet as of late Tuesday is North Carolina, which was referred to as for Trump. The previous president additionally seems well-positioned to win Georgia, the place greater than 90 p.c of the vote has been counted. Harris seemingly can’t rely on Arizona, the swing state the place she’d polled the worst, although it can take a while to rely the votes there.
If Georgia and Arizona certainly fall to Trump — and take into accout they haven’t been referred to as but, however he seems to be formidable there — Harris’s path to victory is determined by successful all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If she loses only one on this state of affairs, it’s over for her. (The opposite remaining swing state, Nevada, will likely be very gradual in counting, however it could be too small to make a lot of a distinction within the Electoral Faculty.)
All three of these Rust Belt states are nonetheless shut. Trump leads the present rely in all three, although many uncounted votes stay from Democratic-leaning areas.
However notably, exterior the swing states, Trump is on observe to do considerably higher than he did in 2020, so a Harris win state of affairs is determined by the Rust Belt defying an obvious nationwide shift in Trump’s favor.
As an illustration, Biden received Virginia by 10. As of late Tuesday, with greater than 80 p.c of votes within the state counted, Harris led Trump by a mere 1.7 share factors. That margin is bound to develop when extra Democratic areas rely, however per the New York Occasions’s forecast of the uncounted vote, she’ll seemingly find yourself with someplace round a 5-point win, considerably worse than Biden.
Related dynamics are at play in lots of different states, and Trump totally romped in Florida, successful it by about 13 share factors. (In 2020, Trump received Florida by a little bit over 3 share factors.)
Certainly, it appears fairly attainable that Trump may win the nationwide common vote. It should take a while to find out that, as it could rely on the ultimate margin in slow-counting states like California.
However what actually issues is how the Rust Belt states find yourself, and we’re nonetheless ready to study that.